The Enea Group has identified and assessed climate-related physical risks in the areas of activity that have a significant impact on the financial performance, i.e. in Enea Nowa Energia, Enea Ciepło, Enea Elektrownia Połaniec, Enea Wytwarzanie, MEC Piła and Enea Operator. Moreover, Enea S.A., Enea Serwis, Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka and Enea Elkogaz assessed climate-related physical risks for the operations that were verified for alignment with the EU Taxonomy.
The climate-related hazards were identified and analyzed for the following time horizons:
- short term: 1 year
- medium term: 5 years
- long term: 15 years.
The time horizons were determined based on the regulations (short-term and medium-term). The long term time horizon was set at 15 years to capture the first years of potentially extreme climate changes in Europe and to maintain consistency between the time horizon for analyzing physical risks and the time horizon adopted for analyzing transition risks in the update of the National Plan for Energy and Climate, which uses a time horizon up to 2040.
To identify climate-related hazards, the exposures, sensitivities and vulnerabilities of assets and processes located at the Companies’ operating sites and within their value chains were assessed for the 28 climate hazards identified by the ESRS E1. The locations were identified based on address data and geospatial coordinates of the companies’ business sites and key parts of their supply chains. The exposure of assets and economic activities was verified and assessed on the basis of quantitative and qualitative data on the materialization of climate-related physical risks in the history of each company, identification of the assets’ sensitivity threshold to material risks, the quantitative and qualitative description of the potential impact of the risks, and the identification of control measures that reduce the exposure to significant climate-related physical risks.
After developing a list of risks relevant to the companies’ operations, the companies collected data on the potential financial losses to property and the potential ranges of losses due to business interruption, loss of productivity, and loss of profits in the event of materialization of relevant climate-related hazards at various levels.
The next step in the analysis was to extract information from climate models to assess the likelihood of relevant risks materializing in the locations analyzed. Based on established hazard sensitivity thresholds and climate models, the approximate probability of relevant hazards occurring at specific locations was determined. The analysis was conducted under a climate change scenario based on scientific findings from reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): SSP5-8.5, which was selected to meet regulatory requirements, i.e., to account for a high-emission climate scenario, such as the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This conservative approach enabled the analysis of the most adverse potential impacts, assuming the occurrence of extreme conditions. The assumptions used in the analyses remain consistent with the state of scientific knowledge as summarized in the IPCC scenario SSP5-8.5. This scenario assumes high economic growth driven by the intensive use of fossil fuels, the absence of effective climate policies, and minimal efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in an average temperature increase of more than 4°C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. As a result of such a large increase in average temperatures, the risk of catastrophic climate and weather events is expected to be high in the long term, while the transition risks are relatively low in the short and medium term. The group obtained information on the scale of climate-related hazards to the Enea Group in the three relevant time horizons from publicly available tools based on the results of modeling of the Earth’s climate system and downscaled to the locations where the companies operate. In accordance with the recommendations of the academic community, the model results were further verified and adapted to the specific context by experts, who drew on historical data and the specialized technical expertise of company employees.
At the end of the process, climate-related physical risks were assessed in accordance with the ESG Methodology, which takes into account the potential financial impacts and the likelihood of a risk occurring at each location.